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Summer Tuesdays Viability of Our 2021 Season |
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Lockdown Timetable
The government’s best-case scenario is that the country will
release the final restrictions on 21st June, about a week before our
season would normally start. This step would include the removal of social
distancing which is a pre-requisite to a return to dancing. This date is heavily
dependent on all previous steps in the easing of restrictions going perfectly
without raising infection rates. Should even one step cause a problem, the final
step could be delayed by weeks or even months rendering our season either wholly
or partially impossible.
Physical
No one will have danced for at least 16 months by the end of
July 2021. None of us will be “match fit” and to go straight to the fast paced,
physically demanding nature of Summer Tuesdays without a period of shorter,
easier paced classes and socials first would be difficult and, in some cases,
possibly even dangerous.
We should also consider the musicians. Like the dancers, no
band has performed for a long time and playing for a whole evening is physically
and mentally demanding and to ask them to perform at their usual levels of
excellence is a big ask without a period of rehearsals and smaller, less frantic
event formats.
Social
After being conditioned for such a long time to maintain
social distance and avoid close contact with other people, many dancers may be
worried about returning to dancing straight away once lockdown eases. COVID-19
will still be present in the population and even though vaccination provides
everyone with a high degree of protection, there will still be a small residual
risk of catching the disease. Some dancers might prefer to take extra
precautions and stay away from larger events at first, slowly building up their
confidence through the familiar surroundings of their club classes.
One of the defining features of Summer Tuesdays is that we
don’t regularly give recaps and walk throughs. After so long without dancing, it
is likely that some people will lack the confidence to attend our evenings until
they have had a period of re-familiarisation through regular dance classes.
It is also possible that having not had their usual programme
of classes and events for so long, that some clubs will choose to run extra
functions through the Summer of 2021 and some people who would normally attend
Summer Tuesdays would either prefer or feel obliged to support their local
events instead.
Logistical
Even when restrictions in the UK are lifted, there may well be
restrictions on International travel. This could well have a knock-on effect on
the availability and prices of internal flights. As we regularly fly bands down
from Scotland, we could find it impossible to book flights at an acceptable
price or time. Even if we can book the flights in the first place, there is
still the risk that flight cancellations could persist, potentially leaving us
without a band at very short notice.
A number of dancers travel to Summer Tuesdays on public
transport. This has been scaled down over lockdown and it is not clear if and
when services will return to a pre-lockdown level. There is also a social aspect
to travelling on public transport – dancers may remain wary of exposure to large
crowds of people in the confined spaces of a train or bus.
Financial
Summer Tuesdays runs on a cash-in, cash-out model and holds no
financial reserves. After paying the band and any expenses incurred each week,
the rest of the money taken on the door goes straight to the church in lieu of
hall rent. The cost of purchasing air tickets is paid for out of our personal
finances and this leaves us vulnerable to the uncertainties listed above. In
2020 we were exposed to a potential loss of over £1,000 but as all the flights
were eventually cancelled, we were able to re-coup this money as cash refunds
from the airline. If the flights had gone ahead, we would have had to rely on
accepting a time-restricted voucher for future travel, in the name of each
musician, which may not have been useable in the timescale.
Conclusion
Due to the uncertainty of the government lockdown relaxation
timetable, it is too early to say whether the season could in theory go ahead
without disruption, but even if it could, the concerns listed above could lead
to a substantial reduction in numbers in 2021. It is impossible to evaluate how
much of an impact on numbers these concerns could have but we should expect
significantly lower numbers than our average attendance of 106 in 2019. From the
experience of earlier seasons, once numbers drop below 90, the special
atmosphere that is Summer Tuesdays begins to lessen and although our breakeven
point (without Hall Rent) is around 60 dancers, any significant drop in numbers
could permanently affect the reputation and appeal of Summer Tuesdays.
Our conclusion is therefore, that an early resumption of our
events is not advisable and we have made the difficult decision to cancel the
2021 season.
Graham & Caroline Hamilton